We know, we know .... ETH Zurich is really great with a lot of smart people from all over the world - constantly ranking among the top universities on our planet. But ... can we do more than science?

Can ETH predict the world cup?

What is this?

If you are a member of ETH, you will know that there is an internal World Cup betting game. Roughly thousand people are registered and are using their intuition about football to bet on the outcomes of every single game. If you are right, you get a point. Goal is to achieve as many points as possible, and to be awarded a price. As the information about what every user is betting on is available for every other user, we use this information to provide you with some statistics and a prediction for the outcome of every single game.

How does it work?

There is a social phenomenon called WISDOM OF CROWDS, saying that crowds of people posses a "collective" wisdom, that exceeds the individuals knowledge. Most famously this was observed in 1906 by Francis Galton. He realized that in a contest, where 800 participating people were supposed to guess the weight of an ox, the median guess of all people was impressively close to the true weight. Read more on Wikipedia about this phenomenon and check out our group here at ETH, the Chair of Systems Design, for more really cool research (for example how social networks die or what factors influence whether your papers are cited or not).

created by:
Pavlin Mavrodiev, Rene Pfitzner and Claudio J. Tessone

ETH Crowd Predictions

In order to view the "predictions" of the ETH Crowd, first click on the matchday to see all games and subsequently select the match your are interested in.


Matchday 11

GER-ARG

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 1 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






BRA-NED

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 0 : 3
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






Matchday 10

NED-ARG

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 2 : 4
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






BRA-GER

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 2
Match result 1 : 7
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






Matchday 9

FRA-GER

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 2
Match result 0 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






ARG-BEL

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 1 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






BRA-COL

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 2 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






NED-CRC

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 4 : 3
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






Matchday 8

FRA-NIG

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 2 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






GER-ALG

ETH crowd prediction 3 : 0
Match result 2 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






CRC-GRE

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 6 : 4
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






ARG-SUI

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 1 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






COL-URU

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 2 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






BRA-CHI

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 4 : 3
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






BEL-USA

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 2 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






NED-MEX

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 2 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






Matchday 7

NIG-ARG

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 2
Match result 2 : 3
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






HON-SUI

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 2
Match result 0 : 3
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






ECU-FRA

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 2
Match result 0 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






POR-GHA

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 2 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






ALG-RUS

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 1 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






BIH-IRN

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 3 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






KOR-BEL

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 2
Match result 0 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






USA-GER

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 2
Match result 0 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






Matchday 6

CRC-ENG

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 2
Match result 0 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






JPN-COL

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 2
Match result 1 : 4
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






CRO-MEX

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 1 : 3
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






ITA-URU

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 0 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






NED-CHI

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 2 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






AUS-ESP

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 2
Match result 0 : 3
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






CMR-BRA

ETH crowd prediction 0 : 2
Match result 1 : 4
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






GRE-CIV

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 2 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






Matchday 5

USA-POR

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 2
Match result 2 : 2
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






KOR-ALG

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 2 : 4
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






ARG-IRN

ETH crowd prediction 3 : 0
Match result 1 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






BEL-RUS

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 1 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






GER-GHA

ETH crowd prediction 3 : 1
Match result 2 : 2
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






NIG-BIH

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 1 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






Matchday 4

ITA-CRC

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 0 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






COL-CIV

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 2 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






URU-ENG

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 2
Match result 2 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






HON-ECU

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 2
Match result 1 : 2
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






JPN-GRE

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 0 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






SUI-FRA

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 2 : 5
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






Matchday 3

CMR-CRO

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 2
Match result 0 : 4
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






RUS-KOR

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 1 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






BEL-ALG

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 0
Match result 2 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






ESP-CHI

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 0 : 2
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






AUS-NED

ETH crowd prediction 0 : 3
Match result 2 : 3
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






BRA-MEX

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 0 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






Matchday 2

ARG-BIH

ETH crowd prediction 3 : 1
Match result 2 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






SUI-ECU

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 2 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






FRA-HON

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 0
Match result 3 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






IRN-NIG

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 2
Match result 0 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






GHA-USA

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 1 : 2
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






GER-POR

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 4 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






Matchday 1

CIV-JPN

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 2 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






URU-CRC

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 1 : 3
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






COL-GRE

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 3 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






ESP-NED

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 1 : 5
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






MEX-CMR

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 1 : 0
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






ENG-ITA

ETH crowd prediction 1 : 1
Match result 1 : 2
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






CHI-AUS

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 0
Match result 3 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.






BRA-CRO

ETH crowd prediction 2 : 1
Match result 3 : 1
(Left) histogram indicates the distribution of goals per team from all bets. (Middle) graph indicates the distribution of the predicted final outcomes. Line thickness is proportional to the number of predictions. Hover the mouse over the single team names in order to get more information. (Right) matrix shows probabilistic prediction for a certain match outcome. This estimatation uses a fuzzy logic approach on all bets for this match. The "ETH crowd prediction" score above is simply the outcome with the highest probability. On top of the matrix we compare the performance of the crowd and the performance of the average individual, in terms of number of points earned. For the crowd, we compute the expected number of points from the fuzzy prediction. For the average individual, we average all points earned by everyone who bet this match. Points are awarded following the standard rules of the ETH betting game.